2013 Thesis: Merck’s Stock Is Almost Certain To Rise — Through At Least The End Of Year

19 05 2013

New Merck, Reviewed

There will be dips, and there is always the remote possibility of some vast disaster hitting Merck’s sales line in 2013. That much must be said at the outset. But it would have to be a more than 10 per cent real decline, to matter this year1. Why? Well, because Merck is pulling some non-operating financial levers, and very adroitly so, at the moment.

In sum, I’ll conservatively predict an overall three to six per cent Merck NYSE stock price increase, net of everything else, by year end 2013. This will be true, I predict, even if not all its expected 2013 “in the pipeline” FDA approvals materialize.

With all the financial engineering now being laid into Merck’s second half of 2013, it is hard to see how the stock won’t — in general — rise more often (and in greater amplitudes) than it sinks. It is likely that some $10…

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