Valeant Is Still Likely Overpaying — By 20 Per Cent

27 05 2013

New Merck, Reviewed

Well, it is now definitive — and, to be clear — we still have to wait to see where all the debt gets allocated, and whether the private equity holders (Warburg Pincus and friends) will share risk of loss/gain on Valeant’s forthcoming $1.5 billion ot $2 billion equity issuance (to fund the deal, in part) — but at $8.7 billion, it still seems about 20 per cent too rich. Valeant apparently hopes to cut S, G & A in half, but Warburg already gutted that mine, and Valeant forgets that the surgical business of B + L has high S G & A needs.

In my opinion, Valeant must be thinking it will sell the surgical lines to pay down some debt. It cannot run the combined businesses, intact — with as low as a 20 per cent S G & A line, for the longer haul. Here is a…

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